Moscow Pressures Minsk to Enter the War

Russia has been pressing Belarus to expand its military role in the war against Ukraine, including by launching drone strikes from Belarusian territory and potentially supporting operations targeting NATO member states, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing current and former US and European officials familiar with the matter.

The Kremlin has been applying this pressure since the start of 2026, the report said, as Moscow searches for new ways to increase pressure on Ukraine amid slower battlefield progress in the east.

What Russia Is Asking For

According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia has sought Belarusian territory for several military purposes: launching additional drones into Ukraine, expanding the use of ground drone stations already located in Belarus, and potentially staging hybrid activities near NATO borders to test Alliance responses and complicate Western support for Kyiv.

A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on operations told the newspaper that Moscow's ambassador to Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, has threatened to cut off financial support from Russia if Lukashenko resists. Belarus depends heavily on Russian subsidies, and rail shipments of Belarusian fuel products to Russia have surged significantly in 2026, deepening the economic interdependence that gives Moscow leverage.

Macron Warned Lukashenko Directly

French President Emmanuel Macron contacted Lukashenko and told him directly that France had intelligence suggesting Belarus was preparing to expand its involvement in the war. Macron reportedly warned him against any further action. An aide to the French president confirmed the call to the Wall Street Journal and said Macron had "emphasized the risks Belarus faces if it allows itself to be drawn into Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has separately raised concerns about unusual military activity on Ukraine's northern border with Belarus and warned that Kyiv would respond if Belarus entered the conflict more directly.

Kremlin and Minsk Push Back

The Kremlin denied the Wall Street Journal's account. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday: "Belarus isn't participating." Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said Minsk perceived a "blatant" attempt to drag it into the war, without specifying who was behind the pressure. He appeared to point the finger at the West rather than Moscow.

Lukashenko, meanwhile, has announced a rotational mobilisation of selected Belarusian military units "in order to prepare them for war," while saying he hoped conflict could be avoided.

What Analysts Say

Several security analysts caution that while Russia is clearly seeking to deepen Belarus's involvement, a full Belarusian ground offensive against Ukraine remains unlikely. Military monitoring groups say there are no confirmed physical indications of imminent attack. The Atlantic Council's Hanna Liubakova wrote in May that the more probable risk is "gradual normalisation," with Belarus drawn incrementally deeper into Russia's war effort through drone infrastructure, airspace use, and fuel supply creating ambiguity that could allow escalation without a clear trigger.

What to Watch

NATO and EU member states are expected to intensify intelligence sharing on Belarusian military developments. The possibility of snap exercises near Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia is being discussed in Western security circles. Whether Lukashenko can continue to resist Kremlin demands and at what political and economic cost remains the central question.